基于反推方法的交通运输行业碳排放评估研究

An Estimation of Carbon Emissions in Transportation Sectors with Backcasting Method

交通运输行业碳排放量化评估对城市低碳策略的制定与实施具有重要参考价值。研究集成趋势预测与落差分析,提出一种基于反推方法的交通运输行业碳排放量测算方法,该方法综合交通运输方式结构以及相应能耗因子与碳排放水平特征,以客运、货运周转量等宏观交通运行指标为依据,衔接终端能源消费与碳排放量,估算碳排放的现状与趋势,反推实现碳排放控制目标的落差与可能实施路径。

Quantitative estimation of carbon emissions for transportation sector have important implications on the development and implementation of urban low-carbon strategy. Combining trend forecasting and gap analy-sis, the paper proposes a backcasting method for estimating carbon emissions in transportation sectors. By inte-grating energy-consuming factors, carbon emission characteristics and transportation structure, the backcasitng method estimates the current status and future trend of the carbon emissions by associating end-use energy con- sumption with carbon emissions based on the macro-level operation index of transportation system--the passen- ger turnover and freight turnover. The study is to shed light on the gap in the implementation of carbon emission control and future policy development. Statistical data from 1999 to 2009 in China show that revolutionary tech-nical innovations or systematic carbon control strategies are required to reverse the trend of more intensive car-bon emissions so as to fulfill the macro-level carbon emission control target.