城市化与服务业的协整及因果关系研究

On Co-integration and Causality between Urbanization and Services Industry

基于我国1978-2010年省际面板数据,利用面板数据单位根检验、协整检验及基于面板数据的误差修正模型,对城市化与服务业之间的关系进行了实证分析。研究结果表明,我国东、中、西部城市化与服务业之间均存在协整关系;长期而言,东、西部地区城市化与服务业存在双向因果关系,而中部地区仅存在城市化对服务业的单向因果关系;短期来说,东、中部地区城市化与服务业存在双向因果关系,西部地区存在城市化对服务业的单向因果关系。

Based on the provincial panel data from 1978 to 2010,this paper utilizes the panel unit test,co-integration inspection and panel-based error correction models to conduct an empirical analysis of the relationship between urbanization and services industry.The results show that there exists a co-integration relationship between the urbanization and services industry.In the long term,there is a bilateral causality between urbanization and services industry in eastern and western region.However,there is just an unidirectional causality running from urbanization to services industry in the central area.In the short term,there is a bilateral causality between urbanization and services industry in the eastern and central region,but there is an unidirectional causality in the western region.