“灾变”问题的灰色概率预测

Grey Probability Prediction of Catastrophes

在研究和分析灌区灌溉调度、农业生产条件时,常遇到天气"灾变"的问题。若遇到年径流量多、年内分配不均衡的丰水年份,对灌区水库来说,不但需要"放水"灌溉,还要考虑"拦洪"、"弃水"和"蓄水"等问题的合理安排,以减少丰水年可能引起的"涝灾";若遇到年径流量小的枯水年份,利用水库在丰水期存入的水量,放水灌溉以缓解"旱情"的增加。为了充分利用水库调节径流在时空间重新分布的功能,减少、缓和因天气"灾变"而出现的"旱、涝"问题,了解和掌握来年的年径流量水文气象指标的变化,以决定当年水库运行策略是十分必要的。因而对来年或中长期年径流量水文指标进行灰色概率预测是很有实际意义的。

While studying and analyzing the regulation and agricultural situations in irrigation areas, there are problems of catastrophes. If the annual runoff is large, and runoff distribution is not balance, for the reservoir in irrigation area, we should consider discharging, intercepting, discarding and storing water to reduce flood disaster in the year with abundant runoff; if the runoff is small, we should discharge water to relieve drought situation in irrigation area. To fully take advantage of the regulation function of reservoir, reduce and relieve the disasters of flood and drought, understanding the change of annual runoff index of next year and determining the strategy of reservoir operation is important. So it is important to predict annual runoff in next year or in the long term.