国际贸易、技术进步对我国制造业工资的影响——基于动态面板和VAR的分析

The Impact of International Trade and Technical Progress on the Salary of China's manufacturing Industry-Based on the Analysis of Dynamic Panel Data and VAR

使用1999～2010年中国制造业十大行业的面板数据,通过建立动态面板和VAR模型,分析国际贸易、技术进步对中国制造业工资的影响。实证结果表明,从整体上看,国际贸易和技术进步都会使得中国制造业工资上涨。从制造业的不同行业看,国际贸易和技术进步的冲击会对绝大多数劳动和资源密集型制造行业工资产生确定方向的影响,而对技术和资本密集型制造行业的工资影响方向不确定;工资本身的惯性和刚性是技术与资本密集型制造行业工资变化的主要原因,国际贸易是劳动和资源密集型制造行业工资变化的主要原因。技术进步不是工资变动的主要原因,但在技术和资本密集型制造行业的工资变化中起到的作用相对较大。

By using the panel data of China＇s ten manufacturing industries from 1999 to 2010, the paper establishes a dynamic panel data model and VAR model, and analyzes the impact of international trade and technical progress on the salary of China＇s manufacturing industry. The em- pirical results show that international trade and technical progress can both increase the salary of China＇s manufacturing industry on the whole. From the angle of different industries within manufacturing industry, international trade and technical progress will have influence on the salary of labor and resource intensive industries with certain direction; however, the influence direction on the salary of technology and capital intensive industries is uncertain. The inertia and rigidity of salary itself are the main reasons of the salary change of technical and capital intensive industries, while international trade is the main reason of the salary change of labor and resource intensive industries. Technical progress is not the main reason of salary change, but it plays a more important role in the salary change of technical and capital intensive industries.