基于熵理论的上市公司运营绩效与风险分析

Research on the Operating Performance and Risk Analysis of Listed Companies Based on Entropy Theory

熵是系统混乱程度的度量变量,熵变理论通过研究系统熵值的变化趋势来研究系统不稳定的内在机制。利用熵权法测算了1998～2011年间中国沪深A股中两次或两次以上被特别处理上市公司的熵值变动趋势,并基于样本数据构造了上市公司熵变周期。通过研究发现:在不同的熵变周期内,上市公司财务政策有不同的侧重点,影响上市公司熵值变化的主要因素是盈利能力、流动性和运营能力,两次ST之间上市公司熵变趋势呈现不规则的U型曲线。

Entropy is a measurement variable which can be used to measure the confusion degree of system; the entropy change theory studies internal mechanism of system instability through entropy value change tendency. This article calculates the entropy value change tendency of listed companies which got twice or more special treatment between 1998 and 2011 in Shanghai and Shenzhen A - share markets, and an entropy change cycle of listed companies is constructed based on sample data. The study finds out that the listed companies＇financial policy have different emphases during different entropy change cycle; the most important factors influencing the entropy value change of the companies are profitability, liquidity and operation ability; and the between the two ST, listed companies＇entropy change tendency shows an irregular U curve.