证券分析师荐股靠谱吗?——以2009～2011年水泥行业为例

Can Security Analysts Recommendation of the Stock Will be Acceptable?Take 2009～2011 Cement Industry for Example

本文以水泥行业为例诠释了水泥行业"至上而下"的基本面分析逻辑框架,比较了新财富分析师对水泥行业来年的投资策略与事后二级市场的表现,结论是:新财富最佳分析师一般能把握行业一年的大致景气情况(排除重大事件),但预测行业在二级市场上的表现则稍微差了些。推股平均收益率方面,新财富最佳分析师所荐股无战胜市场的可能,股票平均收益率受市场影响较大,即市场环境好,荐股收益率高,反之则收益率为负。

Taking the cement industry for example, the authors define the logical framework method of fundament analysis with ＂First Down＂ way. The authors compare the cement industry investment strategy of the New For- turn Best Security Analysts in the coming year with the cement industry really behavior in stock market. The authors conclude that the New Forturn Best Security Analysts can tell us how the cement industry works in coming year, but there are may make a mistake, especially tell us how the cement industry works in stock market. For recom- mendation of the stock average yield, the authors conclude that the New Forturn Best Security Analysts cannot beat the market. The stock average yield impacts larger on market, that is to say, stock average earnings rate will im- prove in the good stock market. On the contrary, the stock average yield is negative.