央行负债证券化调控手段探究——国际经验、约束条件及其在中国的应用

Research on Regulation Policy of the Central Bank Securities

国际经验表明,央行负债证券化调控手段并不必然隐退,原因在于制度环境内生负债证券化调控需求及负债证券化调控方式派生出有利于提高央行货币政策调控效率的制度安排。理论研究表明,服务于冲销外汇储备功能的央行负债证券化调控手段,在固定汇率制及国内外资产利率差异的情况下,可持续的前提是货币投放等于负债证券化调控利息成本与外汇储备资产的收益之差。服务于货币政策调控功能的央行负债证券化调控手段,可持续的前提是央行负债证券化调控产生的央行票据余额必须等于货币投放累积之和。进一步从国家信用角度看,当经济增长率大于包含中央银行票据及国债在内的政府债务利率时,央行负债证券化调控手段具有可持续性。较结合经验数据实证分析表明,我国当前央行负债证券化调控并没有偏离可持续水平,未来这种调控手段仍将持续发展。

As far as the sustainability of the regulation policy of the central bank securities is concerned, there are some im- portant results from the theoretical research. Firstly, when it comes to sterilized intervention, the sustainability condition is the substract between the central bank bills and the foreign reserves equals to the money supply. When it comes to the function of the monetary regulation,the sustainability condition is the central bank bills equal to the money supply. And when we judged from the credit of the contury, the sustainability condition is that the economic growth rate must not lower than the interest of the government debt. Based on the international experiences,we found that the regulation policy of the central bank securities does not doom to be disappear. Empirical study base on China data,we found the regulation policy of the central bank securities in China did not violate the sustainability condition.