系统动力学应用研究综述

Application Research Overview of System Dynamics

为促进系统动力学方法的广泛应用和深入研究,综述了当前国内外系统动力学应用的主要研究成果,讨论了未来系统动力学方法的应用方向。首先评述了系统动力学在国外的发展历程及应用情况;然后从预测、管理、优化与控制3个方面对国内系统动力学的应用研究现状进行评述,并着重从装备规模优化与控制、装备保障过程控制、装备全寿命费用管理与控制、作战效能分析与评估、作战行动指挥模拟等方面,分析了系统动力学方法在我国军事、武器和战略领域的应用研究情况;最后指出分析装备价格及其特性之间的内在关系等是未来系统动力学方法的应用方向,探讨了系统动力学方法在寿命周期费用技术领域中的应用前景。

To promote the extensive application and deep research of System Dynamics, the main results of system dynamics application at present were summarized. First of all, the evolution of the topic and its application overseas were briefly described. Then, the state of domestic application research of system dynamics was expatiated through three aspects： forecasting, management, and optimizing / controlling. Moreover, the application research in military affairs, weapons and stratagems fields were analyzed in terms of equipment scale optimization and control, equipment support process control, equipment life cycle cost management and control, campaign effi- ciency analysis and evaluation, campaign proceeding command simulation. At last, the application directions of system dynamics in the future was discussed and prospected, such as the analysis of relationship between equipment prices and its characteristics, the propor- tion of non - active service civilian faculty in military universities, especially the wide application foreground in life cycle cost technology field.