基于灰色加权马尔可夫链的移动通信市场预测

Mobile Communications Market Forecasting Based on Gray-weighted Markov Model

在传统的用灰色预测模型预测的方法基础上,建立了灰色加权马尔可夫链模型.以中国移动通信市场预测作为实例,介绍了使用这种模型的方法与步骤.灰色加权马尔可夫链模型既考虑了从时间序列中挖掘数据的演变规律,又通过规范化各阶自相关系数为权重,用加权的马尔可夫转移概率矩阵的变换,考虑数据的随机波动,具有严密的科学性,能较好地应用于中国移动通信市场的预测.

Based on the traditional method of using gray prediction model to forecast tendency, the paper gives Gray-Weighted Markov chain Model for forecasting mobile communications Market. Introduce the method and steps of using this model and then take prediction of Chinese mobile communications market as an example. Gray-weighted Markov chain model has not only taken into consideration evolution laws of data from time series, but also considered random fluctuations in data by normalizing autocorrelation coefficient as weight and adopting converting of transition probability matrix, which is rigorous scientific method and could be well applied to the Chinese mobile communications market forecasting.