运用多目标决策分析技术研究黑河流域中游水资源承载力

A Study on the Water Resources Carrying Capacity by Using the Method of Multiobjective Optimization Model ——Taking the Heihe River as an Example

水资源作为干旱内陆河地区社会经济发展最主要的制约因素 ,其承载能力的研究属于区域可持续发展的研究范畴 .根据干旱地区水资源开发利用的结构特点 ,考虑到人口、资源、环境和发展之间的关系 ,采用多目标决策分析技术建立了流域水资源承载力分析模型 .因目前关于流域生态系统的结构和功能还不清楚 ,原则上生态环境用水先保证 ,模型计算的结果也表明对生态环境用水的处理方式是可行的 .最后根据模型的模拟优化结果 。

From a systematic point of view, this thesis features an empirical study of water resources carrying capacity in Heihe valley from 1995 to 2050.The regional water resources carrying capacity was embedded in the macro economic system and a multiple objective analysis technique was developed on the basis of the integration of economy, society, environment, population and water resources system. The water resources carrying capacity model of Heihe valley consists of six sub models i.e., macro economic model, population model, land resources subject model, water resources development and utilization model, water environment model and water projects investment model. Through the operation of the multi objective model, the water resources carrying capacity in Zhangye prefecture was analyzed in detail.