若干共因失效基本模型的分析

Analysis of the Basic Models for Common Cause Failure

在给出了β因子法、BFR模型、BP模型和MGL模型参数的极大似然估计后，利用蒙特卡罗方法模拟失效数据对共因失效分析中的几个基本模型进行分析比较．卢因子法严重高估失效率，可用于失效率的预估；而BFR模型、BP模型、MGL模型则给出比较精确的估计．

To analyse and compare the basic models of commo cause failure, the MLEs of the β-factor, basic parameter model, binomial failure rate model, multiple Greek letter model were given and the Monte Carlo simulation were used for failure data. The β-factor technique was shown to be conservative. Models of BFR, BP, MGL are better when data is sufficient。