单个城市天然气供应安全评价体系——以国内某城市为例

An evaluation system of a single city's gas supply security:A case study from a city in China

天然气作为清洁能源在城市能源消费结构中所占比例越来越高,供气安全关系到千家万户和国计民生,建立供气保障指标体系和数学模型对认识供气影响因素,提升保障措施具有重要意义。为此,从资源供应、输配能力、市场地位、责任能力和应急管理五大方面,构建了含有18个评价指标的城市天然气供应保障指标体系,并根据行业特点给出了各指标体系的定义,以评价城市能否得到足量、及时的天然气供应。将保障指标体系应用于国内某城市,选择层次分析法计算各项指标权重,定性与定量相结合分析可知影响其供气安全的主要制约因素,进一步可得到提高该城市供气保障安全的方向和措施。所建模型在分析影响城市供气安全不利因素,增强城市供气保障措施和安全系数上,具有一定的辅助作用。

Natural gas as a clean energy source has accounted for a higher and higher proportion in the urban energy consumption structure,so gas supply security is closely related to the national economy and people's livelihood in a city.Therefore,it is of great significance for gas suppliers to build an index system and a mathematical model for steady gas supply,thereby to know any possible impact factors and improve their guarantee measures.To this end,from the five aspects of resource supply,transportation ability,market position,responsibility and emergency management,an index system for guaranteeing urban gas supply was built including 18indexes in all.Besides,the definition of each index was listed to evaluate if sufficient and timely natural gas are supplied for a city.In a case study from a city in China,the hierarchy analysis method was adopted to calculate the weight of each index,the qualitative and quantitative analysis ew combined to learn the main factors restricting gas supply security,as a result,gas suppliers got a clear direction and knew how to take proper measures.This index system provides reference for the analysis of adverse impact on urban gas supply security,and the improvement of awareness level and guarantee measures.