基于SD模型的小江流域协调发展模式研究

Sustainable Development Patterns in Xiaojiang River Basin Based on System Dynamic Model

三峡水库自蓄水以来水环境安全问题便受到广泛关注。选取三峡水库典型支流小江为研究对象,应用系统动力学(SD)方法和情景分析方法,构建了小江流域环境-社会-经济系统仿真模拟模型,实现了3种发展情景的模拟和分析。研究结果显示:(1)自然发展模式下流域人口、需水量、各产业GDP都实现高速增长,至2025年COD、氨氮、总氮、总磷的负荷分别达到16 796.1 t,9 578.8 t,3 461.8 t以及405.1 t;(2)经济人口调控模式下COD、氨氮负荷分别下降了7.9%和25%;(3)环境社会经济协调发展模式下实现了污染负荷的大幅度削减。结合模拟结果,提出了小江流域环境社会经济持续协调发展的相关建议。

Water environmental problem of Three Gorges Reservoir（TGR）has aroused wide concern since impoundment.As a typical tributary of TGR,Xiaojiang River was selected as the study area.Using the system dynamics approach and scenario analysis,an environmental-social-economic system dynamics model was constructed and simulated under 3 scenarios.Results showed that with natural development pattern,rapid growth is found in population,water demand and GDP.Loads of COD,NH3-N,TN and TP will reach 16 796.1 t,9 578.8 t,3 461.8 t and 405.1 t respectively in 2025.Under economic-social-regulated mode,loads of COD and NH3-N will decrease by 7.9% and 25%.As for environmental-social-economic coordinated development pattern,the pollutant loads will be largely cut down.In view of the results,relevant suggestions for sustainable development in the River basin were proposed as well.