我国资本账户与金融开放测度研究:1982～2010

Study on the Measurement of the Openness of China's Capital and Financial Account:1982～2010

文章通过引入国际资本套汇套利的实际年收益率将汇率因素纳入模型,对Helmut&Helene的资本与金融账户开放测度模型进行了修正。经对我国1982～2010年期间的计量估计,得出这一期间我国资本与金融账户的开放度为45.86%。其政策含义是在当前资本与金融账户半开放、汇率制度半浮动及我国经济增长放缓情形下,管理当局在实施适度宽松的货币政策同时,应该实施有益于产业结构调整与升级的扩张性财政支出政策和有益于减轻居民与企业税负的财政收入政策。

By introducing the real annual return rate of international capital arbitrage into the model, the paper corrects the Helmut-Helene＇s measure model of the openness of capital and financial account so that it includes the factor of exchange rate. Through the econometric estimate by using the corrected model, it finds that the openness of China＇s capital and financial account is 45.86% during the period from 1982 to 2010. Its policy implication is that in the case of the semi-open capital and financial account, the current semi-floating exchange rate system and China＇s economic slowdown, the management authority should implement an expansionary fiscal expenditure policy to help the industrial structure adjustment and upgrading, and implement a fiscal revenue policy to reduce the tax burden on the residents and enterprises while implementing a moderately loose monetary policy.