河南省农民家庭耐用消费品需求分析及预测

Analysis and Prediction for the Rural Households' Demand of Durable Consumer Goods in Henan Province

加快消费结构升级并有效扩大内需是中原经济区建设的一项重大战略举措,而扩大内需的一个重要节点就是扩大耐用消费品的需求.运用灰色Verhulst模型、二阶差分-指数平滑模型、DGM(1,1)模型及GM(1,1)模型,对河南省农民家庭7种具有代表性的耐用消费品需求做出分析及预测.结果表明,当前和未来几年内部分耐用消费品,如电冰箱、空调器和淋浴热水器,市场需求潜力巨大,而部分耐用消费品,如彩色电视机和摩托车,已经或者将逐渐失去市场.

It is an important strategy to speed up the upgrading of consumption structure and expand domestic demand for the Central Plains Economic Zone,whose one of key issues is to expand the demand of the durable consumer goods.Using grey Verhulst model,second-order differential-exponential smoothing model,DGM（1,1） model and GM（1,1） model to analyze and predict for seven kinds of households＇ representative durable consumer goods in Henan Province.The results show that the market demand is very huge for some of the durable consumer goods such as refrigerator,air conditioner and shower while the others such as color TV and motorcycle will lose their markets gradually in the next few years.