摘要
根据"十二五"交通规划,我国将大力推进公路、水路等重点交通基础设施建设,构建内外畅通的交通运输体系。为促进我国经济社会全面协调可持续发展提供了运输保障,货动量的准确预测显得尤为重要。本文通过分析与货运量增长相关因素的关联度,同时采用R软件编写灰色马尔可夫模型对我国"十二期间"货运量进行预测。
According to ＂The 12th 5-year Plan＂ of traffic planning,it will energetically promote the highway,waterway etc.such key traffic infrastructure construction in our country,construction to the internal and external unimpeded transportation system.To promote China＇s economic and social comprehensive,coordinated and sustainable development provides the transportation guarantee,cargomomentum of accurate prediction seems particularly important.In this paper, through analysis and freight volume growth factors of correlation degree,at the same time,R software writing greyMarkov model is adopted to ＂12th 5-year Plan period＂ forecast of freight volume in our country.
关键词
货运量
关联度
灰色马尔可夫模型
Freight volume Correlation degree Grey Markov model
