江苏内需外需与经济增长的实证研究

An Empitical Research on Domestic Demand,Foreign Demand and Economic Growth of Jiangsu Province

文章对需求各因素与经济增长、内需与外需之间的关系进行简要分析,并在此基础上对江苏需求各因素与经济增长进行了Granger因果关系检验,结果显示货物与服务净出口与产出之间存在双向因果关系,同时存在资本形成总额和产出的单项因果关系。在误差修正模型的基础上对江苏内需与外需之间的关系进行了Granger因果关系检验,结果显示外需和居民消费(包括农村居民消费和城镇居民消费)之间存在双向因果关系;政府需求会刺激外需,但外需对政府需求的刺激有限;外需对国内投资需求的拉动不明显,而国内投资需求对外需的拉动很明显。因此,应采取相应措施促进江苏内需与外需协调发展,以拉动江苏经济增长。

This paper gives a brief analysis of correlation about the domestic demand ,foreign demand and economic growth of Jiangsu province. Based on it, this paper analyzes the Granger causality between demand factors and economic growth, the result shows that the Granger causality between net exports of goods and services and GDP is two-way, and the investment can influnce the output. In additon,on the base of ECM ,this paper also anlayzes the Granger causality between the domestic and foreign demand of Jiangsu. It turns out that the causality of foreign demand and consumption is two-way; The investment has an obvious contributon to the economy. Therefore,it is important to take some measures to stimulate the coordinated development of demostic demand and foreign demand, then improve the economic growth of Jiangsu.