俄罗斯经济形势评估与展望

RUSSIA’S ECONOMIC SITUATION :ASSESSMENT AND FORECAST

１９９９年俄经济形势有所好转，工业产值和国内生产总值开始回升，国家财政状况也有改善，但一些深层次的经济问题远未解决，增长势头难以持久，预计俄经济今后一二年只能有微弱增长，俄经济衰退时间长，幅度大，资金严重短缺，内外债沉重，多数居民生活下降，结构性难题多，因而经济的恢复和发展受到严重制约，要真正实现经济振兴，估计需要１５－２０年。俄的经济科技潜能不容低估。

TheauthorbelievesthatRussia’seconomicsituationwasgettingbetterin 1 999andRussianleadershavebeenoptimisticto wardsomepositivechangesinRussia’seconomy.However,theauthorsays,thelong standingproblemsaccumulatedoveryears havenotbeensolvedatall.Theseproblemswillplayalong termnegativeroleandwillseriouslyrestricttherecoveryanddevelop mentofRussia’seconomy.Concretelyspeaking,theproblemsare:①TherecessionofRussia’seconomyischronicalandishardto recoverinashortperiodoftime .②Theinvestmenthasbeenshrinkingyearbyyear,sothereexistsseriouscapitalshortage .③HeavyinternalandexternaldebtsmadeRussiaexceptionallyrelyontheWest.④ThelivingstandardoftheRussianpeoplewas downgradedandpeoplelostconfidenceinreform .⑤Thestructuralproblemineconomictransformationisfarfrombeingsolved .The authorthengiveshisforecastabouttheshort term ,medium termandlong termdevelopmentofRussia’seconomy .Hebelievesthat Russia’seconomywouldseeaslightgrowthinthenextoneortwoyears.Asfor 1 5— 2 0yearslater,theauthorholdsthatthefore castmadebyAganbegyan ,PresidentofRussia’sAcademyofNationalEconomy ,ismorebelievable.HesaysthatRussiamusttake twoflightofstepstorealizeitseconomicrejuvenization .First,itwouldtakeabout1 0yearstoelevateRussia’sGDPto 1 990level. Second ,itwouldtakeanother 1 0yearstopromoteGDPtothelevelenjoyedbytheex SovietUnion .Finally,theauthorremindsus thatalthoughRussia’seconomyhasexperiencedasharpdecline ,Russiaremainsanuclearpowerandwillnotletanyonetodriveit intoacorner.Moreover,peopleshouldnotunderestimateRussia’snationaldignityaswellasitsabundantnaturalresourcesandhu manresources,itshighscientificandtechnolgicallevelanditsadvantageinmilitaryindustry .