摘要
基于动态演化系统理论,引入煤炭碳排放演化动态系统、演化因子和演化因子推进率,对未来煤炭的能源消耗总量和产生的碳排放进行预测分析。在此基础上引入情景分析,通过对煤炭占一次能源消费的比重逐步下降的比例的设定,引入4种不同的煤炭碳排放情景进行演化分析,量化分析中国未来煤炭产生的碳排放趋势,更能反映实际且有利于促进减排目标的实现。
Based on the study of dynamic systems, this paper introduces a model of dynamic evo- lutionary system, evolutionary factors and advance rate of carbon emissions due to coal in order to predict coal consumption and carbon emissions due to coal. Furthermore, scenario analysis is intro- duced, and by setting the gradual dropped coal ratio of primary energy consumption four scenarios of carbon emissions due to coal are introduced and evolutionary analysis is made. Quantitative analysis of china＇s future carbon emissions due to coal helps to realize the goal of the mitigate carbon emissions.
出处
《管理学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2012年第12期1864-1868,共5页
Chinese Journal of Management
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(71073072
91010011)
国家社会科学基金资助重大项目(12&ZD062)
国家教育部博士点基金资助项目(20093227110012)
江苏省社会科学基金资助重点项目(07EYA040)
江苏省高校哲学社会科学重点研究基地资助重大项目(2010-2-7)
江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目
关键词
系统工程
碳排放
动态系统
煤炭
systems engineering
carbon emissions
dynamic systems
coal
