对“倒U型假说”的一个批判性分析

A Critical Analysis on Inverted U Hypothesis

"倒U型假说"预示着收入分配平等将经历一个"在变得更好之前要变得更坏"的过程。对该假说的检验显示,收入分配平等与经济增长的关系没有一致的规律,检验数据的类型强烈地影响着检验结论。而"变得更坏"并不意味着一定能"变得更好",收入分配不平等的改善不是经济增长的自然结果;经济的全球化与金融化对发展中经济体通过经济增长改善收入分配不平等的努力形成了新压力。对于一个追求在经济增长中最终实现共同富裕的社会主义国家,奉"倒U型假说"为圭臬,共同富裕的目标只会渐行渐远。

Inverted U hypothesis indicates that the equality of income distribution will experience a process of 'getting worse before becoming better'.The hypothesis test shows that there is no consistent rule between equal income distribution and economic growth.The data type greatly influences the test result.'Getting worse' does not necessarily means 'becoming better' because the improvement of the unequal income distribution is not the natural consequences of economic growth.The globalization and financialization of the economy imposes new pressure on the developing economy in its efforts to improve unequal income distribution by economic growth.For a socialist country with realizing the common wealth in economic growth as its final goal,taking Inverted U hypothesis as model will make it go father away from the goal.