内蒙古经济发展与环境污染之间关系的检验

A Test on Relationship between Economic Growth and Environmental Pollution in Inner Mongolia

利用内蒙古1986—2009年间的6类环境污染指标和人均GDP数据,基于VAR计量技术,通过变量平稳性和协整检验,Granger因果检验和脉冲响应分析对经济增长与环境污染的关系及其动态性进行了实证研究。结果显示:①当内蒙古粉尘排放量增长率、工业固体废弃物产生量增长率、工业二氧化硫排放量增长率和工业烟尘排放量增长率各增加1%时,人均GDP分别降低0.068%、0.411%、0.380%以及0.418%;当工业废气排放量增长率和工业废水排放量增长率分别增加1%时,人均GDP分别上升1.305%和1.601%。②人均GDP变化是工业固体废弃物产生量和工业废气排放量变化的Granger原因,但各污染物排放并不是人均GDP变化的Granger原因,这与研究期间内蒙古处于工业化尤其是工业中的采矿业发达的事实吻合。③人均GDP增长率对来自环境变量增长率的冲击影响其响应表现为在第1期均为0,从长期响应来看,给粉尘和废水排放增长率一个正的冲击,人均GDP增长率的响应为持续的降低;对来自废气排放增长率冲击响应函数图在前4期表现出"增长—降低—增长"的趋势,而在后6期表现为缓缓下降;对来自固体废弃物产生量增长率和二氧化硫排放量增长率冲击响应不明显;对来自烟尘排放量增长率的冲击其响应在第2期达到最大值,随后也呈递减趋势。④从方差分析的结果看,不考虑GDP自身的贡献率,内蒙古环境污染指标排放增长率对人均GDP增长率贡献率较小,而在不考虑内蒙古各个环境污染指标排放增长率自身的贡献率的情况下,内蒙古人均GDP增长率对环境污染指标排放的增长率的贡献较高。这进一步说明了内蒙古环境各污染因子排放量的增多并没有大幅度促进人均GDP的增长,但是人均GDP增长却带动了工业污染物排放的增长。

Based on the unrestricted VAR method,the dynamic interactions between economic growth and environmental pollution was investigated through the variable stationary characterization and cointegration test,Granger causality test,impulse response functions and variance decomposition analysis according to the time series data of six kinds of pollution indices and per capita GDP in Inner Mongolia from 1986 to 2009.The results were as follows： 1） There are long-term relationships among the release rate of industrial dust,solid wastes,sulfur dioxide,soot,industrial gas,waste water and the per capita GDP.When the release rate of industrial dust,solid wastes,sulfur dioxide and soot increased by 1%,the per capita GDP would decrease by 0.068%,0.411%,0.380% and 0.418%,respectively;when the release rate of industrial gas and waste water increased by 1%,the per capita gross domestic production would increase by 1.305% and 1.601% individually.2） The per capita GDP Granger caused industrial solid wastes and gas emissions,while it was not true vice versa.This was consistent with the fact that Inner Mongolia was at a middle industrialization stage during the study period.3） The response of economic growth to environmental quality was almost zero in the first period while there was negative relationship between per capita GDP and dust,waste water emissions for a long time.The function graph of response of per capita GDP to industrial gases represented ＂increasing-decreasing-increasing＂ trend in the first four periods while the impact decreased gradually.The response of per capita GDP to industrial solid wastes and sulfur dioxide was not apparent,almost reaching zero and the response of per capita GDP to soot was the biggest in the second period.4） The variance decomposition results of per capita GDP show that besides per capita GDP itself,the variation of all environmental factors makes the least contribution to the changes of per capita GDP,and their contribution rates are almost zero in the first period and rise unobviously afterwards;while the variation of per capita GDP contributes more to the changes of environmental factors.Among all the environmental factors,per capita GDP makes the biggest contribution to the changes of dust emissions,reaching 57.62% steadily.Per capita GDP makes the least contribution to the changes of soot emissions,reaching 12.7% steadily from the first to the tenth periods.It was further explaining that the pollutant emissions could not promote the economy heavily while the increase of per capita GDP can lead to pollutants emission.