基于系统动力学的固体矿物燃料二氧化碳排放量估算研究

System dynamic analysis of CO_2 emissions of solid mineral fuel

固体矿物燃料的排碳量不仅与其生产方式,能源利用强度等有关,还与经济系统中的科技,人口等因素间接相关。在分析固体矿物燃料排碳系统各要素间的反馈互动机制后,构建了系统动力学模型,采用系统仿真的方法,达到预测和分析固体矿物燃料CO2排放量的目的。依据模型的仿真结果,固体矿物燃料的CO2排放量将在2015年前后达到高峰。最后总结了其CO2减排的启示及对策,为其它学者的后续研究提供相关依据。

The carbon emissions of solid mineral fuel not only affected by mode of production, energy intensity and other factors,but also indirectly related to science and technology,the population and other factors from economic system. This study based on the analysis of the solid mineral fuel row carbon system＇s feedback interactive mechanism among various elements is established and me method of system simulation is applied to the model so that this model can predict and analyze the solid mineral fuel CO2 emissions through the method of system simulation. Based on the simulation results, solid mineral fuel CO2 emissions will reach a peak around 2015. Finally,this article sums up the CO2 emissions enlightenment and countermeasures, and provides relevant evidence for other scholars＇ subsequent researches.