近30a来黑龙江省气候变化及其对玉米产量的影响

Climate Change and Its Impact to Maize Yield in Heilongjiang Province

基于全球气候变化,以黑龙江省为例,在收集1980—2009年气象站点农业气象资料的基础上,运用线性倾向率方法,分析了近30 a来黑龙江省玉米生长季和3个主要生育阶段的气候变化特征;在此基础上分析了玉米气象产量与不同生育阶段气候要素的相关性。结果表明:平均、最高和最低温度指标从时间变化来看,在各个生育阶段都表现为升高趋势,从空间变化来看,温度升高趋势基本表现为从东到西的增加趋势;日照时数和参考作物蒸散量的变化从时间上来看,除在播种—苗期表现为减少趋势外,在其他生育阶段都表现为增加趋势;从空间上来看,其变化幅度在各个生育阶段基本上表现为从西南向东北递增的趋势;降水量时间上主要表现为减少趋势,空间变化趋势则不明显。相关分析表明:穗期和花粒期的最低温度与玉米的气象产量呈正相关关系,花粒期的最高温度与玉米的气象产量呈负相关关系。

Climate change affects regional crop production.Heilongjiang Province is one of the most important grain-producing provinces in China,and its maize production plays an important role in local and national food security.Moreover,Climate change has occurred in Heilongjiang Province in 30 years（1980-2009）.Based on the 30-year observational data from 30 meteorological stations,in this study the climate change at different maize growing stages was researched,and the correlations between maize yield per unit area and climate factors at different maize growing stages were analyzed.The results showed that the average temperature,maximum temperature and minimum temperature were all increased at different maize growing stages in recent 30 years,and spatially their increase amplitudes were increased from east to west.Temporally,sunshine duration and reference crop evapotranspiration were also in an increase trend at all other growing stages except at the sowing and seedling stages,and their change amplitudes were increased from southwest to northeast.Spatial change of precipitation was different from different maize growing stages.There was a positive correlation between the maize meteorological yield and the minimum temperature at panicle and corncob stages,but a negative one between the maize meteorological yield and the maximum temperature at anthesis stage.