面向对象模块化的分布式水文模型MODCYCLE Ⅱ:模型应用篇

MODCYCLE-An object oriented modularized hydrological model Ⅱ. Application

应用分布式水文模型MODCYCLE开展了天津市水循环模拟研究,对天津市1997—2004年期间的水量转化关系及人工参与下的流域水量平衡状况进行了分析,并从5个方面对模型进行了验证。模拟结果显示:天津市1997—2004年8年平均水资源总供给量为74.09亿m3,总耗用量为71.26亿m3,总排泄量为8.70亿m3,总蓄变量为-5.82亿m3,其供给项中降水量所占比例为74.2%。此外,上游来水和外调水也是天津市重要的可利用水资源;耗用项中陆面蒸发蒸腾量所占比例最大,达到76.8%;排泄项中97.3%的水量均流入渤海;土壤水、地表水和浅层地下水8年平均补排基本平衡,深层地下水由于缺乏补给量,一直处于超采状态。研究表明,MODCYCLE模型为刻画复杂的区域"自然-社会"二元水循环特性提供了一套有力的方法和工具。

The distributed hydrology model-MODCYCLE was used to simulate the water cycle in Tianjin, It includes the analyzsis on water transfer relationship and basin water balance influenced by human activities in the period from 1997 to 2004. The model has been verified on five aspects, and the results show that the whole annual average recharge amount of Tianjin is this period is 7.409 billion m3, the whole an- nual average ET amount is 7.126 billion m3, the whole annual average discharge amount is 0.870 billion m3, and the whole annual average change amount is-0.582 billion m3. The ratio of precipitation to the whole recharge is 74.2%. Among the composition of total ET, the amount of land ET is the largest, amounting 76.8%. Most discharge, amounting 97.3%, flows into the Bohai Bay. The soil water resource, surface water resource, and the shallow groundwater resource all keep balance, but the deep groundwater resource needs pumping because of water recharge shortage. According to this study, it is suggested that the MODCYCLE model has supplied a method and tool to describe the characteristics of the artificial-natural dual water cycle on regions.