长吉图开发开放先导区固定资产投资效益及其滞后效应分析

Analysis of Investment Benefit of Fixed Assets and Hysteresis Effect ofChang-Ji-Tu Development and Opening up Pilot Area

随着国家对长吉图先导区经济发展支持力度的加大,对其固定资产投资将会进入一个高速增长时期。因此,通过切实提高长吉图先导区域的固定资产投资效益,对化解长吉图先导区乃至整个吉林省潜在的资金风险,实现区域经济的可持续发展具有极其重要的意义。在分析长吉图先导区固定资产投资与经济增长相关性的基础上,通过建立区域固定资产投资效益模型,全面系统地研究长吉图先导区固定资产的投资效益,并进一步建立投资效益的一期滞后模型。研究结果表明,长吉图先导区的经济增长与固定资产投资额之间密切相关,且滞后一期固定资产投资对长吉图先导区GDP增量的滞后效应最为显著。在实证研究的基础上,提出解决问题的有效措施以及具体的政策建议。

Along with supporting intensified on economic development to the Chang- Ji - Tu pilot area, the fixed assets investment would enter a rapid growth period. Therefore, it was very important to realize the sustainable development of regional economy, through improving investment benefit of fixed assets to dissolve the potential capital risks on the Chang - Ji - Tu pilot area. This paper firstly established a model of regional investment benefit of fixed assets on the basis of analysis of the Chang - Ji - Tu pilot area of investment in fixed assets and economic growth, further, established the investment benefit of a phase lag model. Research results showed that economic growth and investment in fixed assets were closely related in the Chang - Ji - Tu pilot area, and the lagging fixed assets investment to the GDP incremental hysteresis effect of the Chang - Ji - Tu pilot area was the most significant. Accordingly, this paper presented an effective way to solve these problems and specific policy recommendations.