关于建设中国-巴基斯坦铁路连接线的几点思考

Some Reflections on Constructing China-Pak Railway Network

建设中国-巴基斯坦铁路连接线的问题已经酝酿了几年,近期出现积极动向,使这一设想的现实可能性逐步增强,建设中巴铁路问题已经被提上议事日程。鉴于该工程项目难度大,投资多,周期长,涉及问题复杂,还需要进行深入研究才能付诸实施。本文认为,建设中巴铁路在技术上有难度,但可以克服,具备技术可行性;在经济上短期效益不乐观,但长期受益巨大,具备投资价值;安全上存在诸多不确定因素,安全成本较高,但随着巴基斯坦安全形势逐步改善,情况将发生转变,因此是短期和暂时的不利因素;外交战略上意义重大,影响深远,应当从战略全局的角度看待这一问题。

The issue of constructing China-Pak railway network has been brewing for years and it is eventually put on the agenda. This paper argues that there is a technical bottleneck in the construction of the transnational railway. The long-term benefit of the project could be huge despite the short-term benefits restricted; there are indeed uncertainty in terms of safety and security in Pakistan but the improvement is quite promising.