国际冲击、供需缺口与粮价波动

International Impact,Demand-Supply Gap and Grain Price Fluctuations

对粮价上涨的原因进行了分类和归纳,发现影响中国粮价波动的直接原因主要是国际市场粮食价格、国内粮食供求缺口和货币供给量。利用多元回归模型和VAR模型对粮价变化的影响因素进行实证分析,发现短期内国际市场粮价变化对国内粮价带来较大冲击;长期内供需缺口是影响粮价变化的主要因素;货币供给量大幅增加之后的第2年出现粮价上涨压力,而且影响可能持续2年。

The paper classifies and summarizes the reasons of rising grain prices,and finds out that the direct reasons influencing China＇s grain price fluctuation are grain price of international market,grain demand and supply gap in China,and money supply.An empirical analysis is made on the factors affecting grain price by using multiple regression model and VAR model,and the author finds out that in the short term,grain price change in the international market has large impact on grain price in China;in the long run,demand and supply gap is the main factor affecting grain price change;the second year after money supply increases significantly will lead to the pressure of gain price rise,and the effects may last for 2 years.