重庆市生态环境SD仿真建模研究

System Dynamics Simulation on Eco-Environment System of Chongqing City

城乡生态环境问题的准确仿真模拟,对于更好地进行统筹发展政策设计与决策有着重要意义。基于系统动力学(System dynamics,SD)原理,建立了城乡统筹发展背景下重庆市城乡生态环境系统SD仿真模型,模型共涉及"人口"、"资金"、"污染指数"等112个变量及"PPI=FPFPI+FSPI+PFPI"等116个方程,并能够较好地模拟实际系统;最后对模型进行了动态模拟和优化仿真。模拟结果表明,模型能够较好地模拟实际系统,仿真结果不仅可为进一步推进城乡统筹发展决策提供一定参考,并且还可以在此基础上对系统的未来发展进行预测和政策试验。

The coordinative development of the eco-environment is one of the key problems that faced with in the progress of co- ordinating urban-rural development. The accurate simulation of eco-environmental problems in urban rural areas is of great im- portance to the policy design and decision-making. Through the theory of ＂System Dynamics＂, the system dynamics simulation model of the eco-environment system of Chongqing city based on the background of balancing rural and urban development was established, and the simulation and optimization results were obtained. Simulation showed that the model could be better to simulate the system, and the simulation results will not only promote reference for the coordinating urban-rural development, also prospect, predict and test the future behaviors of the system.