电子货币的发展对货币流通速度的影响

The Effect of Electronic Money Developing on Monetary Policy

电子货币的产生与发展不但改变了人们的生活习惯和方式,而且还给传统的货币理论带来了前所未有的挑战,尤其是加大了中央银行制定和实施货币政策的难度。根据Engle和Granger提出的协整理论,若某些经济变量是非平稳的序列,但是它们的线性组合却可能是平稳序列,因此可以利用该理论来检验变量之间是否存在长期的均衡关系。运用协整理论和误差修正模型ECM,对中国1990—2010年期间的电子货币和货币流通速度进行了研究分析。从实证的结果来看,电子货币的发展对货币流通速度的影响是很显著的。电子货币对传统货币的替代存在明显的两种效应:替代转化效应和替代加速效应。这两个效应都不同程度上影响着中国的货币流通速度,且对于通货(M0),电子货币的替代加速效应大于替代转化效应,通货流通速度(V0)出现上升趋势,而对于狭义货币供应量(M1)、广义货币供应量(M2),电子货币的替代转化效应大于替代加速效应,因而狭义货币流通速度(V1)、广义货币流通速度(V2)呈下降趋势。

Production and development of the electronic currency not only changed people＇s habits and ways of life, but also brings a hitherto unknown challenge to the traditional monetary theory, especially increasing the difficult of formulating and impling monetary policy more for the central bank. This article applies the cointegration theory, making a empirical effect of e- lectronic money and monetary velocity, and studying the immanent connection. Based on the theoretical research of other scholars , linking the theoretical and empirical, using cointegration theory and error correction model, established a stable rela- tionship between electronic currency and currency circulation speed, has analyzed the electronic money on monetary circulation speed impact, and the corresponding proposed policy suggestion. From the empirical results, the development of electronic money on monetary velocity impact is very significant. The electronic money on the traditional currency substitution has two obvious effects： alternative conversion effect and substitution acceleration effect. These two effects are different degree of influ- ence our country＇s currency circulation speed, and at the M0 level, currency substitution accelerate effect is greater than the substitution effect of V0transformation, have been on the rise, and for M1 , M2, electronic currency substitution transforma- tion effect is greater than the substitution accelerate effect, and V , V decreased.