北方草原牧民对极端干旱感知的季节敏感性研究

The Season Sensitivity of Herders’Perception to Extreme Drought in Northern Grassland

为深入探究气候变化背景下人类适应过程,基于"感知-适应"框架,利用人群感知与干旱时间序列之间关系,即Pa-PI相关的研究方法,以内蒙古典型地区为例,研究了北方草原牧民对极端干旱感知的季节敏感性。结果表明:牧民对极端干旱发生年份的感知强度随时间序列非均匀递增,且对干旱强度具正向的依赖性;牧民感知以夏旱敏感为主,其敏感度大于春、秋、冬、跨季节及全年干旱;而同一地区的敏感季在不同年代段具不稳定性,随时间变动;在年代之间,时间越近牧民对极端干旱的识别越敏感。比较年、季、月等尺度干旱发生对牧民感知结果的解释能力,发现月尺度比季及以上尺度的解释力下降,表明牧民对极端干旱的感知主要是根据季及以上时间尺度的判断。

In order to explore the human adaptation process under climate change, based on the ＂perception-adaptation＂ framework, and the Pa-PI related method that was the relationship between herders＇ perception and drought in time series, the herders＇ perception to extreme drought was analyzed in the typical areas of Inner Mongolia. The results showed that herders＇ perception intensity about extreme drought occurrence rises with time series, and depends positively on the intensity of drought intensity. The results also showed that herders＇ pereeption to extreme drought was most sensitive to drought in summer, but relatively not sensitive in other three seasons, the whole yeas and inter-seasons. The sensitive seasons were different at the different periods in the same area. Herders had more sensitive perception to drought which occurred in recent years, and time was one key factor influencing herders＇ perception. The results also showed that herders＇ perception to extreme drought was mostly based on season, quarter and year scales but not month scale.