2012-2013年中国宏观经济再展望

A New Outlook on China＇ s Economy 2012-2013

＂中国季度宏观经济模型（CQMM）＂课题组基于2012年7月底国家统计局最新发布的中国宏观经济季度数据调整并估计CQMM模型,更新了2012年下半年和2013年中国宏观经济的预测数据。预测结果表明,中国GDP增速2012年底可能下滑至8.01%,但2013年将回升至8.29%。预计2012年全年CPI将上涨2.9%,同比下降2.52个百分点;到2013年,CPI可能回升到3.27%。课题组模拟了欧元区经济出现更严重衰退和再次出台大规模财政刺激政策对中国经济可能产生的影响。模拟结果显示,即使外部经济情况继续恶化,中国经济增速进一步下滑的幅度是有限的,而实施追加＂2万亿＂财政支出扩张计划能在一定程度上提高GDP的增长率,但是力度有限,由此带动的信贷及货币扩张不仅会大幅提升通货膨胀的风险,而且还可能进一步恶化原已失衡的经济结构。因此,在目前的宏观经济形势下,不宜再度启动大规模财政刺激计划,应当适度微调,稳住8%左右的增长速度,将重点转向深化体制改革与结构调整。

Based on the latest China＇ s quarterly c data released by the Chinese National Bureau of Sta- tistics at the end of July in 2012, the project team of ＂China＇ s Quarterly Macroecunomic Model （ CQMM ）＂ estimates CQMM, renewing the forecasts for China＇s macro economy in the second half of 2012 as well as in 2013. The predicting results reveal that, the growth rate of China＇ s GDP will slow down to 8.01 percent, and we will see a rise back to 8.29 percent in 2013. It is also projected that CPI will increase by 2.9 percent in 2012, a year-on-year drop by 2.52 percent, and rebound to 3.27 percent in 2013. In addition, the project team simulates the potential impacts on China＇ s economy, caused by the hypothetical more severe recession in the euro area coupling with another launch of massive investment stimu- lus plan. The simulation results suggest that a further declining of China＇ s economy is limited, notwithstanding deteriora- tion in the external economy. Although the newly added ＂two trillion Yuan stimulus package＂ is expected to raise the growth rate of GDP to some extent, the effects will turn out to be small. Meanwhile, the incurred credit expansion will raise the inflation risk sharply, and worsen the already imbalanced economic structure. Therefore, the project team maintains that, under current macroeconomic circumstances, China should not implement another massive investment stimulus plan; instead, it is advisable to conduct an appropriate amount of fine-tuning to sustain the economic growth rate at around 8 per- cent, and pay more attention to deepening the system and structural reform.