我国通货膨胀拐点预测模型及其应用研究

China's Inflation Turning-Point Prediction Model and its Application

影响我国通货膨胀的结构性因素包括:流动性水平、成本推进、工业化和城市化、资产价格泡沫、财政政策与产业政策、量化宽松货币政策、人民币升值预期、国际大宗商品市场价格上涨8个方面25个典型代表性经济指标。基于上述指标创造性地建立了我国通货膨胀的拐点预测模型。将模型分别应用于我国2011年和2012年的通货膨胀预测,发现通货膨胀由上升状态转为下降状态的拐点时刻为2011年7月,2012年上半年通货膨胀会保持大于2的下降趋势,这与我国通货膨胀实际表现相一致。根据通货膨胀在今年下半年会下探到小于2随机游走状态的可能,结合我国通货膨胀内部压力结构的分析,提出合理化解和控制通货膨胀内部压力的五条建议,来保持我国通货膨胀的稳定与适度。

In this paper,the following structural factors influencing inflation are identified: level of fluidity,cost push,industrialization and urbanization,asset price bubbles,fiscal and industrial policy,quantitative easing of monetary policy,expectations of RMB appreciation,and international large scale commodity market prices(25 typical representative economic indicators are involved).Based on the above factors,China's inflation turning-point prediction model is established.It was applied to inflation forecast in 2011 and 2012,and found the moment at which inflation would transfer from rising to declining state would be July 2011 and this declining trend would maintain greater than 2 in the first half of 2012,which are consistent with the actual inflation performance.Considering the possibility of inflation dropping into random walk state less than 2 in the second half of the year,on the basis of the structural analysis of the internal pressure of inflation,we put forward five proposals including resolving and controlling the internal pressure of inflation to maintain the stability of the inflation in China.