非常规突发事件的情景演变及“情景-应对”决策方案生成

Study on scenario evolvement and alternative generation of "scenario-response" decision-making in unconventional emergencies

非常规突发事件的发生与演变具有极强的不确定性和独特性,传统的"预测-应对"决策范式难以适用,必须采用"情景-应对"决策范式对事件具体的情景做出实时决策.在分析非常规突发事件的内涵及其发生的内在要素基础上,对非常规突发事件应急决策的情景及其演变过程进行描述;在深入分析"情景-应对"决策范式与决策规则基础上,给出"情景-应对"决策范式下非常规突发事件应急决策方案的生成过程.

As a result of having an extremely strong uncertainty and uniqueness in generation and scenario evolvement for unconventional emergency, the traditional decision-making paradigm of ＂forecast-response＂ should be replaced by the ＂scenario- response＂ paradigm for real-time decision making. Here, based on a analysis of the content and internal factors of unconventional emergency, the process of scenario and its evolvement were described for emergency decision-making. On the basis of an in-depth analysis ＂scenes- response＂ paradigm and decision-making rules, the generation process of emergency decision-making alternatives was given.