河北省冬小麦生产干旱风险分析

Risk assessment of drought for winter wheat production in Hebei Province

利用河北省冬麦区49个气象站1980—2010年的气象资料及其相应的冬小麦产量资料,选取三种干旱指数,根据自然灾害风险分析的基本原理,计算了气候干旱、作物干旱、产量灾损三种风险度,并进行了相应的风险区划,根据区划结果提出了不同风险区的减灾对策。结果表明:(1)冬麦区气候干旱风险以中风险或较高风险区域为主,作物干旱风险则以较高风险区为主,产量灾损低风险区域较大。(2)气候干旱、作物干旱、产量灾损各等级风险区分布无明显相关关系,产量灾损风险与各地的灌溉条件关系密切。(3)产量灾损各风险区应采取不同的减灾对策,高风险区应以防旱为主,采取一系列保墒措施,提高自然水分利用率;较高风险区应以抗旱防旱为主,加强农田水利基本建设,改善灌溉条件;中低风险区应以发展优化灌溉制度为主,实现节水高产。

Based on the risk analysis principle of natural disasters, both climatic data and yield data of winter wheat from 49 meteorological stations in winter wheat producing region of Hebei from 1980--2010 were used to calculate three risk indexes including climatic drought risk, crop drought risk and yield losses risk respectively, then risk zones were divided, and based on those the disaster reduction strategies for different risk zones were put forward. The results showed that there were mainly moderate risk or higher risk zones according to the climatic drought risk analysis in the province, and the higher risk zone was the main one according to crop drought risk analysis, but the main zone was the low risk zone according to yield＇ loss risk analysis. There was no significant correlation within climatic drought, crop drought and yield loss, but there was significant correlation between yield loss risk and irrigation. Different strategies should be taken in different yield loss risk zones. In the highest risk zone, drought-prevention was the key measure, a series of measures of moisture-conservation must be taken so as to improve the use efficiency of rainfall. In higher risk zone, the main mea- sure was drought-resistance and drought-prevention through strengthening water conservancy project and improving irriga- tion efficiency of farmland. Optimizing the irrigation system was the main measure to achieve high-yield with less-water in the medium and low risk zones.