房地产市场与金融市场联动关系的实证研究

The Empirical Study on the Interactive Relationship between Real Estate Market and Financial Market in China

市场经济中金融市场与房地产市场相互影响、相互渗透,而在当前中国宏观经济环境下,这种互动关系复杂而多变,更需要实证的检验。本文首先通过复相关分析筛选出两市场代表性指标,随后进行协整检验、误差修正模型以及脉冲响应分析,论证两市场间存在长期动态均衡关系,刻画了两市场短期互动关系以及突发冲击的长期互动影响,并据此提出谨慎选择房地产金融政策,开拓房地产多元化融资,保持金融和房地产市场稳定发展的政策建议。

After deep study of the curium status in China, the thesis makes use of the complex correlation coegicient analysis, cointegration theory and error correction model, and the method of impulse response to carry on an empirical study of Interactive Relationship between real estate market and financial market. Research shows that the financial markets and the real estate market have a longterm equilibrium relationship and there exists error correction mechanism. The proposal is that real estate finance policy should be carefully chosen, much effort should be exerted to develop diversified financing to maintain two markets stable.