杂货预测方法的探讨

A Study of forecasting Methods for General Cargo

货源预测是船队经营决策的重要依据。然而 ,杂货货源预测由于杂货的界定不明、杂货品种多等因素而难以进行。本文根据预测目的 ,讨论了杂货统计范围的界定 ,并提出杂货按货类预测的新思路。在此基础上 ,结合集装箱化率、散货船承运份额等因素对可供杂货船承运的杂货进行了推算。

Cargo forecasting will provide scientific basis for the fleeting operation and management. However, prediction is difficult for general cargo because of a wide and unfixed statistics scope. This paper tells how to define the relevant statistics scope of general cargo according to the forecasting aim, and a new forecasting method is put forward for the general cargo possibly carried by general ships.