秦皇岛市流行性病毒性感冒疫情监测结果分析

Analysis on epidemic monitoring results of influenza in Qinhuangdao City

目的了解秦皇岛市流行性病毒性感冒(流感)流行规律,为流感预防控制提供依据。方法利用Excel和SPSS软件对2009年5月流感监测系统启动以来3年的流感样病例(ILI)监测资料和病原学检测资料进行分析。结果 ILI就诊百分比(ILI%)高峰每年在11月中旬—3月上旬。3个年度的ILI%分别为2.73%、1.01%和0.85%,差异有统计学意义,χ2=883.70,P<0.01。优势毒株在新甲型H1N1、季节性H3、B型之间,ILI好发年龄在5～25岁。3个年度流感病毒核酸阳性检出率分别为44.94%、13.47%和7.91%,χ2=280.89,P<0.01,差异有统计学意义。ILI%与流感病毒阳性检出率之间呈正相关。2009—2010年相关性最好,剔除阳性率为0和100%的监测周,r=0.852,P<0.01。结论 ILI流行趋势与流感病毒活动趋势基本一致,可以用ILI%监测反映流感病毒活动的强度,判断流感发病水平和高峰的出现,以便及时采取预防控制措施。

[Objective] To know the epidemiological characteristics and trends of influenza in Qinhuangdao City,and provide evidence for prevention and control of influenza.[Methods]The analysis was conducted on the surveillance data and laboratory detection data of influenza like illness（ILI） cases during May 2009 to May 2012 in Qinhuangdao City from Influenza Surveillance and Management System by using EXCEL and SPSS software.[Results] The peak of ILI% appeared in mid-November to early March in every year.ILI% were 2.73%,1.01% and 0.85% in the past 3 years,with significant difference（χ2=883.70,P0.01）.The predominant strains changed between influenza A（H1N1）,influenza B and seasonal influenza H3.The age group of 5-25 years had high risk of ILI.The nucleic acid positive rate was 44.94%,13.47% and 7.91% in 3 years respectively with significant difference（χ2=280.89,P0.01）.ILI% was significantly positive correlated with influenza positive rate which showed best in 2009-2010 when excluding the weeks with positive rate equal 0 and 100%（r=0.852,P0.01）.[Conclusion]The characteristics of ILI prevalence trend are basically similar to activity law of influenza virus.ILI% can be used to show the activity intensity of influenza virus and to judge the incidence and peak of influenza so as to adopt timely prevention measures.