应用趋势季节模型预测医院门诊人次

The Application of Seasonal Trend Model in Prediction of Outpatient Visits

目的预测某医院门诊人次,为医院门诊管理提供科学依据。方法依据某医院2007年-2011年门诊人次,采用趋势季节法建立门诊人次预测模型,对该院2012年门诊诊次进行季节预测。结果通过季节趋势预测,得到该院2012年各季门诊人次的点估计值和区间预测值。结论趋势季节模型简便易行,预测效果好,可为医院工作的发展规划提供一定依据。

Objective To predict outpatient visits in order to provide scientific evidence for the management of outpatient services. Methods Ac- cording to outpatient visits of a hospital from 2007 to 2011, it predicts outpatient visits by establishing a seasonal trend model. Results Through predict- ing seasonal trend, the point estimation and interval prediction of outpatient visits in various seasons of 2012 were calculated. Conclusions The seasonal trend model is simple, convenient and easy to operation, which effect of prediction is well, proving basis for hospital development.