数理统计在艾滋病疗法评价与疗效模型中的应用

The Application of Mathematical Statistic in AIDS Therapy Appraisal and Curative Effect Model

首先对美国艾滋病医疗试验机构ACTG公布的两组数据进行统计分析,剔除异常点,筛选出有效数据,利用Matlab软件画出散点图,寻找CD4浓度、HIV浓度随时间变化的规律。其次,利用线性回归对几种不同疗法的优劣以及疗效进行了研究,给出二次回归模型,并对回归模型显著性进行检验,说明其是合理的。通过以上统计分析得到最佳治疗终止时间和最佳疗法。

This article makes statistical analysis to the two groups of data issued by American ACTG,eliminates the outliers,selects the valid data,draws the scatter diagram with Matlab,and finds the laws of CD4and HIV concentration.With linear regression,the advantages and disadvantages of different therapies are studied to get the quadratic regression model,and the significance of regression model is also checked to be reasonable.The best time and therapy are obtained from the above statistical analysis.