基于SD的区域工业产业发展系统模拟

System Simulation of Industrial Development in Guangzhou Based on System Dynamics

针对区域工业产业发展系统运行规律及所具有的复杂和动态系统特征,运用系统动力学（SD）对其有效运行进行系统建模,对区域工业产业未来的发展变化趋势作出模拟预测,进而预见该系统在发展变化过程中可能出现的问题。探索一种定性及定量相结合的反映区域工业产业发展系统运行机制的方法,观测其行为特性,找到起主要作用的反馈回路和政策的杠杆作用点。广州市工业产业发展的实证分析表明,该方法可为决策提供理论依据和指导。

Considering the complexity and dynamic of regional industry, the writer constructed a system model based on system dynamic theory to forecast the development tendency of regional industry. Some problems could be identified during the running of the system. The exploration of qualitative and quantitative perspective reflects the operating mechanisms of the regional industrial development system. By observing its behavioral traits, the main role’s feedback channel and policy’s leverage effect can be found. The empirical analysis of Guagzhou’s industrial development shows that this method provides decision-making with theoretical base and guidance.