我国外汇超规模储备的制度性因素分析

System Factors that Lead to Excessive Foreign Currency Accumulation

外汇储备作为反映一国国际收支的重要的宏观经济指标,其宏观经济调控功能日渐加强。我国国际收支连续双顺差,导致外汇储备激增,人民币面临对外升值和对内通货膨胀的双重压力,给我国的经济增长和对外贸易发展带来越来越多的负面影响。本文对我国外汇储备激增的原因进行分析：研究我国外汇储备增长的直接帐户反映,也就是贸易项目、资本项目对外汇储备增长的各自影响及综合影响,并分析直接因素后的制度因素,即资本项目、贸易项目为什么会导致外汇储备的激增,分析其深层制度缺陷和因素。基于分析结果,提出减少我国外汇储备过多,实现适度规模的政策建议。

Foreign currency stock is an important macro-economic index reflecting a nation’s bal-ance of payments, and its adjusting function in macro-economy becomes evident gradually. China’s international payment has been twin surpluses leading to a dramatic upsurge of foreign exchange stock and dual pressures from both the appreciation of RMB to other currencies and the domestic inflation. It has brought increasingly negative effects on China’s economic growth and foreign trade development. This article reveals： the direct account of increasing China’s foreign currency stock, i.e. the respec-tive and comprehensive influences of trade item and capital item on the increase of foreign currency storage. It also analyzes the system factors of the direct factors, i.e. the reasons that capital item and trade item cause the soar of foreign currency stock. It carries out an analysis of the in-depth system limitation and factors. Based on the findings, the author makes a suggestion of reducing China’s foreign currency stock and actualizing moderate scale.