摘要
通过对供热负荷特点的分析，建立了基于时间序列分析方法的供热负荷预测的数学模型，给出了供热负荷预测的计算流程，并将供热负荷的预测理论应用于牡丹江西海林小区集中供热系统。实际运行结果表明，用本文所研究的供热负荷的预测理论预报的供热负荷与实际运行结果相比，预测精度是令人满意的。
According to the analysis on properties of heat load, the paper establishes the mathematics model of heat load forecast based on the method of time series analysis, supplies the computing procedures as well. Then the theory of heat load forecast is applied to an concrete heating system in Mudanjiang. Through comparison of results from theory of heat load forecast and experiment of concrete. heating system in Mudanjiang, it can be asserted that the accuracy of theory of heat load fore- cast is most satisfactory.
出处
《哈尔滨建筑大学学报》
2000年第3期56-60,共5页
Journal of Harbin University of Civil Engineering and Architecture
基金
黑龙江省自然科学基金
关键词
供热负荷
锅炉房
热水
供热系统
供暖
heat load
forecast
time series analysis
boiler plant
hot - water
heat - supply system
