标准对中国出口增长的影响

The Impact of Standards on China's Export Growth

运用计量方法研究国家标准与出口增长之间的关系,结果表明:标准量的变化是出口增长的Granger原因,标准对出口额的确有影响且时效性较强,标准颁布实施的第一年作用最大,此后逐渐减弱直至没有影响。岭回归的估计结果证实国家标准对我国的出口增长具有显著促进作用:1978年～2010年间,若其他因素不变,我国的标准数量每增加1%,出口额将相应增加0.315%,但自2001年加入WTO后,标准对我国出口增长的影响发生了显著的结构性变化。

Employing econometric methods, the paper examines the relationship between national stand- ard and export growth. The empirical results show that the change of standard volume is the Granger cause of export growth, and standards have an important and time-effective impact on export volume. The first year after a standard＇s publication can see the most obvious role on export, and this effect weakens over the time. The estimation from Ridge regression confirms that standards can positively and significantly promote China＇s export growth： if other factors remain unchanged, 1% of increase of standards may lead to 0. 315% of in- crease of export during 1978 -2010. Besides, since China＇s accession into WTO in 2001, the role of stand- ards on China＇s export growth has experienced an obvious structural change.