简化贝叶斯方法在核电厂设备可靠性研究中的应用

The Application of Simplified Bayes Estimation to Study on the Nuclear Power Plant Equipment Reliability

利用蒙特卡罗方法简化贝叶斯估计的计算过程 ,并对核电厂设备可靠性数据进行自动快速分析 ,使小子样情况下分布参数估计计算过程大为简化。经过核电厂设备可靠性模拟数据检验 ,证明该方法计算过程高度自动化。

Monte Carlo method is applied to simplify the Bayes estimation of nuclear power plant equipment reliability. This makes it possible to automatically and quickly analyze the reliability data and greatly simplify the computing procedure. Testing by the simulated reliability data of nuclear power plant proves that this method is a good, automatic and self adapting method for argument estimation.