我国外贸发展方式转变的实证研究——基于全球价值链视角

The Empirical Study on the Transforming Development Pattern of China’s Foreign Trade under Global Value Chains

在全球价值链视角下,从外贸增长、发展动力、外贸结构和可持续发展四个方面构建我国外贸发展方式转变的评价指标体系,以2001-2010年的数据,采用AHP方法对外贸发展方式转变进行实证分析。结果表明:2006年后外贸增长指标持续增长,发展动力指标波动明显,外贸结构指标逐年增加,可持续发展指标具有最强的持续转变趋势。最后提出加快外贸发展方式转变的对策建议。

Based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process, the paper establishes an evaluation index system of the foreign trade growth, the driving force of develop- ment, the foreign trade structure and the sustainable development at perspective of GVC. After that, the paper also conducts an empirical study on it based on Chinas data from 2001 to 2010.The result is： the foreign trade growth is arising from 2006;the driving force of development has obvious fluctuation; the structural indicators show the performance of its foreign trade structure enhancing is medio- cre; the transformation of the sustainable development is outstanding. Generally speaking, the task of speeding up the transforming development pattern of Chi- nas foreign trade remains arduous. At last the paper brings forward our own opinions and suggestions based on analyzing the weak points in terms of its eval- uation system.