中国高科技出口产品恒定市场份额分析:1995-2010

Constant Market Share Analysis of China’s High-tech Products’Export: 1995-2010

1995-2010年间中国高科技产品出口增长率远远高出世界平均水平,从贸易视角来看,这其中既有单个市场竞争力提高的因素,也有市场结构(包括产品结构与地域结构)的贡献。本文采用恒定市场份额分析法(CMSA)对这些影响因素的大小做了实证分析,研究结果表明竞争力效应是中国高科技产品出口市场份额增加的主要原因,结构效应贡献很小。在结构效应中,产品效应基本上均为负值,说明了产品结构长期都不够合理,出口的高科技产品长期集中在进口需求增长速度较慢的产品类别上,因而改善出口产品结构是扩大出口的重要途径。

The rate of export growth of China＇ s high-tech products is much higher than that of the world in the period of 1995-2010, which is not only due to the rise of competitiveness in each individual market, but also to the changes of export structure （product structure and geographical structure）. The CMSA （Constant Market Share Analysis） formulation used in this work takes the ele- ments above into account , and the assessment of CMSA shows that the main contribution to changes of market share is the competitiveness effect, however, the structure effect is marginal. In addition , a fiLrther breakdown of structure ef- fect shows that product effects are almost negative in the studied period .It indi- cates that China＇ s products structure of export is not rational in the long term , or that the export is concentrated on the products whose demands grow slower , Therefore, updating the structures of export products is the important way to ex- pand exports.