基于蒸发量模型的云南省中期火险趋势分析与应用

Medium Fire Trend Analysis and Application in Yunnan Province Based on Evaporation Model

利用平均相对湿度(x_1)、平均风速(x_2)、平均温度(x_3)、蒸发量(y)数据建立蒸发量预测的多元线性回归模型。分析模型表明主要蒸发量的影响因子依次为x_3>x_2>x_1;利用该模型预测蒸发量,并结合气象站的预报结果计算降雨量和蒸发量之间的差值即有效保水量;参照国家森林火险等级预报方法,结合森林资源和生态系统指标,使用权值打分法计算云南各地州火险等级评分,云南省森林火险划分为5个等级,指出森林防火工作的重点地区和针对不同火险级别提出相应的防范措施。用易于获取的气象因子来预测蒸发量,实时完成数据测量,火险等级划分和预测的结果具有良好的时效性,可以实时分析中期火险趋势,有效地提出森林防火工作的重点地区和不同火险级别的相应措施,更好地遏制森林火灾的发生。

Used average relative humidity, average wind speed, average temperature and evaporation es- tablished the multivariate linear model on evaporation predicting. The results showed that the main factors influencing the evaporation were arranged in order of x3〉x2〉x1. The model could be predicted evapora- tion, and combined with meteorological station forecast results to calculated effective moisture content by the difference between rainfall and evaporation. Reference to national forest fire rating prediction methods, and forest resources and ecosystem indicators, fire rank mark of various states in Yunnan province were calculated with weighting scoring method. Forest fire in Yunnan province was divided into five levels. The key area of forest fire prevention was proposed, and some corresponding measures were put forward to dif- ferent fire grade. The model selected factors of meteorological could be acquired easily to predict evapora- tion, and real timely accomplish to measure data, the result of forest fire grade dividing and predicting is good time-sensitive, and analyze of medium fire trend in real-time, and effectively propose the key area of forest fire prevention and different fire grade corresponding measures, so as to contain forest fire.