我国通货膨胀的成因——基于BQ分解方法的SVAR模型分析

Factors of Chinese Inflation——Based on BQ decomposition method of SVAR model

笔者将2001年以来的通货膨胀产生的因素分解为输入型通胀冲击、超额货币供给冲击、产出缺口冲击和汇率冲击4个方面,并利用BQ长短期约束条件的SVAR模型进行了实证分析。短期来看,影响通货膨胀的主要因素是通货膨胀惯性,其他因素对通货膨胀的影响较小,紧缩货币政策对通货膨胀短期治理不明显,且具有滞后效应,滞后为3期左右;长期来看,影响通货膨胀的主要因素为超额货币供给和通货膨胀惯性,超额货币供给冲击对通货膨胀形成原因的解释高达48%,紧缩货币政策效果对通货膨胀的长期治理效果明显。

We decompose Chinese inflation into four factors., imported inflation impulse, extra-money supply impulse, output gap impulse and exchange rate impulse after 2001, and use of BQ Short and long constraint conditions method of SVAR model analyzing it. In the short term, inflation inertia is the main factor in affecting inflation; other factors have a small effect, tight monetary policy has no significant effect in managing inflation, and it has lagged effect about 3 month;In the long term, extra-money supply impulse and inflation inertia are the main factors in affecting inflation, extra-money supply impulse account for 48% contribution to inflation,tight monetary policy has important effect in managing inflation in long-term.