外汇占款与货币供给:基于结构突变理论的实证检验

Funds Outstanding for Foreign Exchange and Money Supply:Test Based on Structural Mutation Theory

本文基于2005-2011年我国外汇占款和广义货币供应量的月度数据,考察外汇占款与货币供给的时间趋势特征。通过运用结构突变模型分析发现,外汇占款在金融危机前已经发生了结构突变,产生了趋势性的根本改变,而国际资金的避险需求、我国经济对外资的吸引力下降、人民币国际化的推进打开了人民币的回流渠道等是导致外汇占款减少的主要原因。我国应对外汇占款的新变化引起高度重视,进一步加强对跨境资金流动的监管,并将外汇管理的目标由"控流入"调整为"促平衡"。

The paper studies the time trend features of funds outstanding for foreign exchange （ FOFE ） and money supply, based on the monthly data of FOFE and M2 from 2005 to 2011. The author finds out that through structural mutation model, FOFE has experienced structural mutation before the crisis, and produces fundamental mutatinn. Risk-aversion demand of global funds, the decline of attraction of our economy for foreign capital and the return channel of RMB caused by speeding RMB internationalization are all the reasons for FOFE decline. China should pay close attention to the new change of FOFE, further monitor cross-border capital flows and adjust the objective of foreign exchange management from ＂controlling inflow＂ to ＂promoting balance＂.