区域洪水灾害风险快速评估研究——以上海市为例

Rapid Assessment of Regional Flood Disaster Risk——A Case Study in Shanghai City

根据洪水灾害形成机理,本文构建了一种快速评估区域洪水灾害风险的方法,即用致灾因子危险性和承灾体脆弱性且辅以地形因子来反映区域洪水灾害风险,并以上海市为例,对该区域洪水灾害风险进行了快速评估:首先根据降雨数据对致灾因子进行分析;然后综合灾情损失与致灾因子获得承灾体脆弱性程度;再根据水位信息对地形因子(DEM)进行危险性划分;最后应用GIS图层叠加技术,实现了上海市洪水灾害风险区划。结果表明:上海市闵行区、市辖区洪水灾害风险最高;宝山区、浦东新区和崇明县等沿海地区洪水灾害风险较高;奉贤区和金山区洪水灾害风险较低;松江区、青浦区、嘉定区等内陆地区洪水灾害风险低,其中松江区洪水灾害风险最低。

According to the formation mechanism of flood disaster,a rapid assessment method of flood risk is built, and regional flood risk is reflected by the risk of disaster-causing factor, the vulnerability of hazard bearing body and terrain factors. This paper takes Shanghai City as an example. First the risk of disaster-causing factor is analyzed by rainfall data, and then disaster loss and disaster-causing factor are comprehensively analyzed to obtain the vulnerability degree of hazard bearing body;and according to the information of water level, the risk of terrain factors （DEM） is divided;at the end GIS space superposition function is used to realize flood risk division in Shanghai City. Results show that.flood risk of Minhang District is the highest;it is the second highest in Baoshan,Pudong New District, Chongming County and other coastal areas, while Fengxian and Jinshan are of low risk; Qingpu,Songjiang,Jiading and inland areas are of lower risk, and among them Songjiang District has the lowest risk.